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derivative filename/jpeg
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363-04290 to 363-04301.pdf
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Digital Object Identifier
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363-04290 to 363-04301
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Title
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Article about military assessment of an immanent victory in Vietnam
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Description
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Original title: "battles", Keever's title: "No Chance of Victory Spurs Communist Defector; Many Others Killed." Article draft about senior military officials' belief that victory in Vietnam is inevitable. Written for the Christian Science Monitor
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AI Usage Disclosure
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Draft transcripts were automatically generated via Google Document AI and are currently under review. Please report significant errors to Archives & Special Collections at archives@unl.edu.
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Transcript
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zcze sag
yy 1jp
battles 1 (normass/deepe)
SAIGON, MAY 10-A s Vietnam peace talks begin in Paris, senior
AMERICAN
Allied field commanders believe the Allies are currently winning a
clear-cut military victory in the significant battle of Saigon.
They say they have inflicted disasterously heavy losses on the
more than three-plus Communist division- equivalents which have attempted to
assault and infiltrate the capital.
"The battle of Saigon is being won largely outside the city," one
high-placed source explained. "The Communists are taking heavy losses."
Allied commanders are still concerned about the Communists
high-p
But,
small-unit capabilities-to rocket
non and e mortar Saigon,
without much risk of to their troops, or to raise urban havoc with
FAND
terrorist incidents, sniper and propaganda teams.
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2020 986
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battles 2 (normass/deepe)
Captured Communist prisoners have told the Allied commanders
that their units have been ordered to stay in the city and fight at any
cost and hence more small-scale actions are expected in the near future.
Some of the units badly battered in the battle of SG Saigon are expected
to withdraw and regroup, probably five ko kilometers from the city limits,
where they will try to get fff ammunition, supplies and at continuo harrassmont
of the capital.
#MERICAN
"But, their units are in bad shape," one senior commander explained.
"We are finding and destroying them, it will take time to find all of them.
We have to search every little bit of nipa pris palme if not, they let you
walk by them.
optomste
"But, I'm very optimiste I fool that within a couple of days,
battle of Saigon will be won and the city will be secure militarily
the
secure
(agens
AND
(from main-force units), but it will take time to get the snipers."
HRALLERY
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battlos 3 (normass/deepe)
Captured Communist senior officers and documents have confirmed
for the Allied commanders here that the current Communist offensive
is
"to achieve a psychological victory leading to a political advantage
at the negotion negotiation table. The time of the offensive appears
to be carefully related to negotiations," one informed source explained.
"Hence, the Communists units have been ordered to remain in the Saigon
but their bapabilities have been drastically reduced We expect that the
a few days after talks begin."
area,
will try to maintain pressure
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battles 4 (normass/deepe)
One informed source explained that Communist prisoners said they
"had been told they had to liberate the South and that there would bo
a general uprising in and that they will achieve final victory with this
offensive. I af don't know what the Communist leaders will say next time-
this line of propaganda is getting a little w
Common Communist
to
ropaganda documents indicate a similar line of argument was told the
their troops during th before the Tet offensive which began late January.
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The optimism of Alliod commanders is based on both the
quantity and quality of the Communist losses.
In the battle for Saigon, within its oity limits and the fringes
from it, 1,600 Communists have been killed in the 121-hour period beginning
4 com. May 5 to 5 a.. on May 9. An additional 100 Communists were captured
and handfuls of others defected to the Allied side. During the compr
period, Allied losses were 87 fatalities were 87.
terms, 18 Communists were killed for every Allied trooper.
83 same
Translated into kill-ratio
Fourteen
On May 9, for example, 402 enemy Communists were killed in action
and oightoon were captured in the Saigon and its immodiate environs.
11iod soldiers were killed-ten Vietnamese and four American.--for nearly
Some localized actions gave the Allies,
a
30 to 1 kill-ration, ratio.
1 a ratio of killing 100 Communists will losing only one themaleves
themselves.
The over-all average of 18 to 1 kill-raio ratio during the
past five days in the sai Saigon area is one of the highest in the history
of the war for sustained actions,
informed sources report.
Outside of sai gon in the provales rural provinces immodistoly
surrounding the capital, an additional 2500 Communists have been killed
in the past five days since the beginning of the Communist offensive, informe
sources report.
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battles 6 (normass/deepe)
CommuniST
"To have been intercepting the main-force units Giftsoute
onroute to Saigon since late April," one senior Allied commander
said. "We have reduced the combat effectiveness of many of these units..
This does not mean we killed even every man in the unit, but it means
they have lost about fifty per cent casualties.
We have contacted
Contat
all of their organised reginents except a few-and those have been heavily
damaged since the last week of April."
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battles 7 (normass/deepo)
More than the quan numbers of Communist losses, however, Alliod
commandors
are 460 encouraged by the quality of their losses.
"Militarily when this battle is finishod, the enemy will be in bad shape,"
one Allied commander explained. "He has lost alot of loadership of his
officers and non-commissioned officers, his key leaders and local cadre.
Many of tho local cadre surfaced surfaced and assisted in the movement
of military formations the loonl id guerrillas were thrown in with the
main foroo. We have taken a tremendous toll of those cadre and local
Comm
guerrillas
and this is going to leave their whole syste military m
system in shambles.
thou
without leadership the machine won't function.
You can't take a copo corporal and make him a company commander in one day.
Many of these fu southern guerrillas from the villages just can't be
I don't sey
replaced by North Vietnamese from anthe another country.
after this, the onemy can not launch another attack on
but it won't be effective."
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battles 8 (normass/deepe)
Informed sources revealed the captured Communist prisoners and
defectors have said the North Vietnamese and Communist morale is low-
Although no repeat no mass defections have taken place, by
de
clumps
of three to six defectors/have rallied to the Allies at a time. They give
as their reasons for defection that they are not being adequately supported
by their higher headquarters, that they are hungry and homesick, that they
are afraid of Allied power and that they do not fool they have a co
chance of victory. "The of fact they do not feel a chance for victory,"
is the most importent one mentioned by most of them,"
one source said.
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battles 9 (normass/deepe)
AMERICAN
Allied commanders believe the success to date in the battle of
Saigon has hinged on their ability to intercept Communist units moving
towards the city. But, the job of intercepting Communist units
is difficult-and the odds are in favor the Communists when they attempt
to infiltrate the city.
"The Allied interception was well done, which was the whole
point of the Ta Toan Thang (Complete Vieto Victory) operation launched
the second week of April," a senior Al American field commander explained.
"This is not to say we got every many coming into the city. It is
vict vio virtually impossible to get every enemy unit before it gets to the
city. AND,
the source
"But, it is easy for the Communists to if infiltrate. Many have
government identity cards and wear civilian clothes,"
continued. "Some of thom coven dress in Vietnamese government uniforms.
They speak the laung laun language and they have their weapons cached in
the city. It is virtually impossible to stop every man.
police die did an exceptional job in picking up some infiltrators.
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The Vietnamese
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battles 9 (normass/deepe)
"Also, when a Communist division moves, it does not form up as a
division," the source explained. "The division breaks down into
es emaller units, generally companies,
or at least no larger than a
battalion, Then they move at no night, with the companies re-assembling
in a base aroa,
then the next morning the the three companies move out
separately again and finally at one time when they are within striking
range of the city they form up into battalions and regiments.
"We have caught them mostly at night as they were moving," he continued.
"It used to be said that the night belongs to the V. C. (Viet Cong).
But it's not true any more. In the past
months we have stressed
night operations Now almost all our operations are at night and it has
paid real dividends because that is the only time the Viet Cong con move."
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battlos 11 (normass/deepe)
Reliable Allied sources here are clearly worried about
of the ComMMUNIST
therusts
psychological and political repercussiong in America and Europe, oven though
they see the Communists as suffering heavy losses.
"I feel sorry for the American people," one informed source explained.
"They must think the Allied cause is hopeloss. By the time the
events are sifted out by the press, the television puts on pictures of
burning
Saigon) and they see heavier American casualty figures, they must be
willing to sue for d peace.
"Buty
in fact, the reverse is true.
We are
winning a tremendous military victory--and the Communists are suffering
a real military disaster.
"Why do you think the Communists are negotiating anyway," he continued.
"The war is shifting gears-but why? Ho Chi Minh used to say this would be
a long, drawn-out war, maybe even twenty years. Thon all of cadet
a sudden, he goes all-out with an offensive into the cities. Why? Because
he was losing the attrition war. The Allies have been fighting four years
in the attrition way and General (William C.) Westmoreland was right in
saying in using Allied mobility and firepower to destroy the enemy--and the
Allies could do that better and faster than the Communists destroy the
Communists faster than they could destroy the Allies.
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battles 12 (normass/deepe)
"So, Ho Chi Minh changed from the protracted war to the all-out attacks
in the cities because he was losing attrition-wise. No one would change
his tection if he were winning.
while putting all-out pressure on the capital citios for an all-out victory.
During Tet, it worked for him. He won a tremendous psychological victory,
but suffered a military disaster.
So he shifted to negotiating in Paris
But, the American people did not know
about the milita the Allied military victory, so they self-imposed
their own
(Hanka
Ch013 (12-301-imposed psychological defont."
This is an assessment from the American point of view by
in soni or allied commander.
This is the first time he had boon
interviewed by the press and I suspect & this is a more detailed review of
what the wires are running. Tomorrow, I'll write another military piece
updating the Viet Cong colonels story.-this will be more of an
analaysis of the Communists plan.
In the above story, I've made a point of using alot of quotes
explaining the official viewpoint hore, to make it clear it is the
official appraisal, which I think should be run whether one bo believes
it is too rosy or not.
I'll also mail you a 3g map of Saigon showing the nine procincts
in case you don't have it or need it in the futuro. Could you return mo
Nik Wheeler's photos if they're not in the mail yot.
regarding them.
Thanks for the note
There's fighting around the press transmittor i topput as lon
as that is not atta knocked out Routers says
better than Tet. Regards Bev).
Communications
== END ROUTER
"old v
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Date
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1968, May 10
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Subject
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Vietnam War, 1961-1975; Mặt trận dân tộc giải phóng miền nam Việt Nam; United States. Military Assistance Command, Vietnam; Defection; Vietnam War, 1961-1975; Defectors--Vietnam; Intelligence service
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Location
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Saigon, South Vietnam
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Coordinates
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10.8231; 106.6311
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Size
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20 x 26 cm
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Container
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B10, F29
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Format
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dispatches
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Collection Number
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MS 363
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Collection Title
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Beverly Deepe Keever, Journalism Papers
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Creator
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Keever, Beverly Deepe
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Copyright Information
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These images are for educational use only. To inquire about usage or publication, please contact Archives & Special Collections.
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Publisher
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Archives & Special Collections, University of Nebraska-Lincoln Libraries
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Language
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English
