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derivative filename/jpeg
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363-05094 to 363-05104.pdf
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Digital Object Identifier
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363-05094 to 363-05104
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Title
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First article on the long march towards peace in Vietnam
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Description
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Original title: "withdrawl", Keever's title: "[?] 'De-Foreignizing' U.S. and Hanoi's Corp Withdrawal from South Vietnam Secretly Discussed", Article draft about discussions between the U.S. and North Vietnam, for the Christian Science Monitor, page 1-11
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AI Usage Disclosure
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Draft transcripts were automatically generated via Google Document AI and are currently under review. Please report significant errors to Archives & Special Collections at archives@unl.edu.
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Transcript
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withdrawal 1 (normass/deepe)
(This is the first of a series on the long march towards peace in
Vietnam).
att-SAIGON OCTOBER 28-Secret arrangements have been made in Laos for
the "gradual and proportionate" withdrawal on a concurrent basis of
American and North Vietnamese troops from South Vietnam, informed
sources report.
Tentative and general agreement on this move towards "de-foreignizing"
the South Vietnam conflict has reportedly been reached between Washington
and Hanoi. The American and North Vietnamese ambassadors to Laos,
Mssrs.
William Sullivan--a protege of Averill Harriman heading the
American negotiating team in Paris--and Le Van Hien from Hanoi reportedly
which
lead the shaping of the broad outlines of the withdrawal plan,
includes some specific details such as options for regrouping regroupment
of troops into enclaves prior to withdrawal.
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The secret arrangements in Laos represent major concessions from
NORTH VETNAM
Hanoi, o had officially vowed it would not repeat not discuss any other
after
Vietnam-related matters until the American government had completely, ceased
its territory.
aerial attacks and "other acts of war"
against all of North Vretriem.
bilateraly
The final and formal agreement on the ou concurrent withdrawal of
oth North Vietnamese and American troops is scheduled to be the first
inst item of substance on the agenda at the Paris peace talks once-and
if the American bombing of North Vietnam is halted and the conference is
expanded to ic include the representatives of the two South
Vietnamese warring factions-the Saigon government and the pro-Communist
National Liberation Front,
commonly called the Viet Cong.
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troop
initial
The actual withdrawal
or perhaps.
discussion of troep-exit
from South Vietnamese soil is tentatively
scheduled to be acom accompanied by a temporary ceasefire-after which
the two Southern participants may either decide to continue tinex fighting
each other with renewed vigor or else reach some political agreement
Another option for
on ending finallh finally the war in the South.
the withdrawal, however, would be s a plan, far in which American and
North Vietnamese troops would exit the South tacitly exit the South
but unilaterally,
concurrently, but Washington and Hanoi would keep secret the agrmanentam
mutual, bit bilateral agreements.
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OPEN, ANNOUNced Procedure of disengagement
The fat procedure would involve mutual guarantees and open inspection
by some international commission--and would require Hanoi to admit
officially and publicly the presence of North Vietnamese troops in the South,
which it has thus far been reluctant to do tham completely. The second
system would involve mutual trust between Hanoi and Washington that each
side would tacitly fulfil its side of the agreement without open inspections
and without Hanoi's official acknowledgement of its troop presence in the
South.
The official words of "gradual and proportionate" withdrawal seems
to indicate that the American and North Vet Vietnamese troops would exit
the South in phases over an extended period of time, and that, instead
of a man-for-man numerical exchange, thumimamian Hanoi and Washington
pecified
would withdraw percentages of their over-all strength on a simultaneous
basis. Hence, for example,
Hanoi and Wes Washington might agree to
the simultaneous withdrawl of ten per cent of the troop strength on each side.
But, the North would withdraw 12 12,000 men while the Americans would
withdraw 53,000 men.
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С
END
While the Johnson Administration has been officially advocating
of the Vietnam conflict, the actual process
"mutual de-escalation"
is one of graduated military disengagement of American and North Vietnamese
troops. And while American officials have been pronouncing that
WAS Militarily
American troops would withdraw when she the South Vietnamese Army is capable
to taking over full burden of the war-in fact, the American troop
withdrawal seems directly and politically linked to an arranged exodus
of North Vietnamese troops--whether the South Vietnamese army is capable
of coping with the war or not.
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accusations BM
The result of this in Saigon is het Vietnamese political leaders
are beginning to accuse in shrill terms that the American government is
more interested in the liquidation of the American side of the war than
they are insuring the survival of non-Communist South Vietnam and
strong, long-range American image in Asia.
a
Most observers in Saigon believe that a ceasefire for the beginning
of simultaneous troop withdrawals might be hitched to an extension of the
traditional Christmas or Tet truces in South Vietnam.
These truces at
Christmas and at Tet are announced separately by both the Allied and
Communist sides-they are not mutally agreed to. And this year these truces-
Of Dere
if they again are called for-will be a traumatic experience in Vietnam
because the Communists launched their most smashing offensive of the war
by reneging on their own Tet truce promise.
Disengag
Hence, the earliest ceasefire
Ent
for the initiation of the withal of American and North Vietnamese
forces seems to be at Christmas time; other believe it may coincide with
the Tet this year in February; others believe it may not be agreed to until
mid-1969.
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South Vietnamese officiall officials are publicly optimistic that the R
anti-Communist armed forces can cope with the left-over Viet Cong once the
North Vietnamese begin withdrawing.
"Once the Northerners renounce the use of force to impose their will
on the South, the Viet Cong are going to be nothing,"
explained.
one senior official
This optimism is based on one calculation-and only one-that the
balance of forces between the
South Vietnamese armed forces and the Viet Cong
will still lie heavily on the
side of the anti-Communists,
even after
the American and North Vietnamese troops withdraw.
In short, the calculation
is that the Communist side of the war is sustained heavily by the Northerners,
rather than the Southern Viet Cong.
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withdrawal 8 (normass/deepe)
In numerical terms, the over-all Communist paremilit military and
paramilitary strength committee committed to South Vietnam is roughly
225,000. This figure excludes an estimated 80,000 political infrastructure.
Of this 225,000 armed troop figure, slightly more than half-129,000
roughly 120,000--are of North Vietnamese origin. Secretary of Defense
Clark Clifford said in a recent press conference in Washington that the
North Vietnamese have roughly 80,000 troops in South Vietnam and another
30,000 to 40,000 have withdrawn across nearby border areas.
The current balance of forces now lies decisively with the Allied side--
Famed Alles
at a ratio of about a eight Allied military and pena
Communist.
pysfonces for
military, PARAmil, for
FD poce
Over-all Allied strength is 1.6 repeat 1.6 million versus
225,000 armed Communists.
With the eventual withdrawal of American, South
AS WELL AS North Vietnamese
Korean, Thai, Filipino and Australian-New Zealand forces, the ration would
at least statistically soar to ten to one. The one-million armed South
Vietnamese military, paramilitary and police forces would still hold the
military
predominance of power over the remaining 105,000 armed Vet Southern Viet Cong.
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In unit terms, the picture is also atohoydil readily etched
that the North Vietnamese forces form the top layer of the big-unit,
High
main-force war, which produces the spectacular battles and casualties.
Currently committed to South
the South Vietnam war are nine
Communist divisions-seven of which are North Vietnamese and two of which
are Viet Cong. Fifty Communic
autonomous regiments
per auto Fifty other Communist
are committed--42 North Vietnamese and nine
Viet Cong There are 280 separate battalions-160 ry North Vietnamese
and 110 Viet Cong.
Only with ente separate companies do the Viet Cong
forces heavily owi outweigh the North Vietnamese input; of 240 companies
only 21 are North Vietnamese.
Multitudes of separate platoons and squads
are also predominantly Viet Cong.
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Two words of caution are necessary.
Many of the units labelled as
Viet Cong are also heavily beefed up with North Vietnamese fillers.
Second,
one of the key factors involving the withdrawal of North Vietnamese troops
will be whether the Communists actually pull out the individual
these in fillers in the Viet Cong units as well as the North Vietnamese
big-unit formations. While American intelligence information can track
down large Communist unit movements, it can not detect individual
Northerners or small groups of them which might be left behind or
re-infiltrated to reinforce the Viet Cong. Hence, one of the key
provisions of the Washington-Hanoi agreement on withdrawal of their troops
will be in the inspections and guarantees that the North Vietnamese
units and individuals actually depart South Vietnam and do not repeat
not again infiltrate back.
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Compared to 1967, the current over-all Communist military and political
strength has dropped from 320,000 men to 305,000 currently. However,
their
unit composition has increased since 1967, with the inore addition of one
12 regiments and 68 battalions. The number of men per unit has
division,
decreased.
The average Communist losses in 1961 1968 is almost four times higher
than the average in 1967-23,000 a month in 1968 compa5 compared to 8,000
a month in 1967. The Communists have lost double the number of weapons
in 1968 that they lost in 1967. But, Communist infiltration monthly
more than
infiltration average has nearly doubled since 1967-7,500 a month in 1967
compared to 16,000 a month in 1968. The Communist lines of infiltration
into the South have improved to the extent they can move in men and supplies
three times faster than in 1967 they did last year.
==end reuter
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Date
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1968, Oct. 28
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Subject
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Vietnam War, 1961-1975--Peace; United States--Relations--Vietnam (Democratic Republic); Vietnam (Democratic Republic); Diplomacy
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Location
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Saigon, South Vietnam
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Coordinates
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10.8231; 106.6311
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Size
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20 x 26 cm
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Container
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B10, F39
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Format
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dispatches
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Collection Number
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MS 363
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Collection Title
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Beverly Deepe Keever, Journalism Papers
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Creator
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Keever, Beverly Deepe
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Copyright Information
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These images are for educational use only. To inquire about usage or publication, please contact Archives & Special Collections.
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Publisher
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Archives & Special Collections, University of Nebraska-Lincoln Libraries
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Language
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English
