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derivative filename/jpeg
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363-06173 to 363-06179.pdf
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Digital Object Identifier
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363-06173 to 363-06179
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Title
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Article speculating about Hồ Chà Minh's policy toward the USSR and China
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Description
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Original title: "fate", Keever's title: "Ho Chi Minh in Hanoi Straddles Sino-Soviet Split", Article speculating about Hồ Chà Minh's policy toward the USSR and China and how this will effect the balance of power in the region long term, for the New York Herald Tribune
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Transcript
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deepe
fate-1
april 5, 1965
SAIGON The fate of Asia,, if not the world, appears to rest
on the decisions of a wispy-bearded man who speaks fluent Engoi
English and a smokes American cigarettes.
He is the most senior,, prestigious leader of the international
Communist movement-he was a Bolshevik before Joseph Shale Stalin
and a card-carrying Party member before China's Mao-Tse-Tung.
His name is Ho Chi Minh, the leader of North Viet Nam.
(More)
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- Page 2
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deepe
fate-2
Uncle Ho-as even the anti-Communist South Vietnamese nationalists
call him--is faced with a double confrontation: the confrontation with
AMERICA,
the es mightiest airpower of the world, plus the visible Moscow-Peking
conflicts withim his own Communist world.
The escalation of the American-South Vietnamese airstrikes against
north Vietnam has itself been dramatically an escalated into a "new phase "--
as American officials here call if and the question is how many phases: lie
before the world im the future.
The answer to that question will be made by Uncle Ho-to defeim
define the limits of the escalation of the American airstrikes against
North Viet Nam.
Will Uncfod Uncle Ho "invite"
Chinese Communist armies to sweep
ORAIT
across his country and invade South Vietnam and Southeast Asia from
the South China Sea to Burma? Will Uncle Ho accept Soviet military
defensive missiles and aircraft-with the strings the Russians will attach?
Uncle Ho's principal dilemna at this point is not whether to
accept the Russiam defensive military air aid to neutralize American
N Act
airpower-Ho is reportedly eager to receive this aid, and is infact
expecting it, The most carefully followed developments by intelligence
officers im Saigon and by American aerial reconnaissance pilots is whether
These
this Russian missiles have arrived yet.
Ho's dilemma is whether he will accept the R Soviet aid om the
Russian--and American terms--to negotiate, tactic tacitly or openly, a
peaceful solutiom which somewhat preserves, at least om the surface,
independence and integrity of anti-Communist South Viet Nam..
the
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deepe
fate--3
Officially,
the Russiam texшx pre-conditions for a negotiated
T
settlement are for the withdrawal of Americam troops and military
advisors from South Viet Nam. Unofficially, however, the Russiam
PEACE
pre-conditiom for negotiationsters was formthematopping that the
Americans stop bombing North Vietnam..
Reliable sources here indicate that the short-term Americam
strategy is to continue bombing military installations--and transportation
BESUN
means of transportation and co communication, which they have since
im recent days begun, them to stop briefly until the North Vietnamese
THEIR
re-consider its own position. Im If the Hanoi regime still is
unwilling to negotiate, them the Americans airstrikes would be
directed at Uncle Ho's industrial bases,, most of which lie in the
fertile Red River Delta near Hanoi.
tacti
Few reliable politica 1 sources expect Hanoi to agree,
tacitly or openly, to any negotiated settlement or compromise until
the Russian defensive me military aid has been installed in North
Viet Nam.
High-ranking American military a commanders and political
experts also believe that the Russians will send in mi defensive missiles.
"Hanoi can't negotiate now," one traveler from Hanoi explained.
They are now in a weak position and have no bargaining power at all.
They will be im a much better bargaining position when the Russiam
mi defensive etc missiles and airplanes arrive.
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deepe
six fate-4
"Also Hanoi regime isn't clear about what American intentions
really are," the traveler from North Viet Nam reported. "What economic
advantage would Hanoi get out of this peace? Could they still get
the a actief achieve their eventual target, which is reunifie
reunification of North and South Viet Nam? Besides Hanoi believes its
own propaganda and think the through Buddhist demonstrations, political
Soon
chaos they will have a government in Saigom that is favorable to both
their positiom."
The sending of Soviet defensive military aid to North Viet Nam--
which is considered "a strategic decisiom for the Russians"..
---- would
entail not only ground-to-air defensive missiles, but more important
super-sonic jet aircraft armed with air-to-air defensive missiles.
The Soviets have reportedly sendret given to Indonesia and to
India the M super-sonic MIG-21 jet, a4 armed with homing missiles,
"but a are now looking silly if they don't give these jets to
a fellow socialist country," a traveler from Hanoi reported.
million missiles,"
one
"Hanoi can't protect North Viet Nam with ra
reliable source indicated. "It takes a long time to set up missiles--and
missiles must have a good radar and communications network to spot the
American planes. The Americans can knock out these missiles before they
ever become operative--and that's the significance of the Americam
raids om radar installations and communicatiom networks.
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deepe
fate-5
"To have a really meaninguf meaningful air defense system,
the Russians must give Hanoi jet-fighter aircraft with homing
missiles on it," the source continued. "It's surprising if
the Russians are not alrea dy trying to do something like this."
Im the initial confrontation between American jet-fighters and
WERE
Communist aircraft Sunday, the MIG-15's and MIC 17's-
desiGNED
Russian aircraft of Korean War vintage, but which the Chinese Communists
are also capable of producing. The planes carried Vietn North
Vietnamese aircraft markings, according to American Air Force officials.
The North Vietnamese air force strength,, according to recent
figures,
numbers about 50 planes, none of which are capable of flyi
Vietnamese intelligence
flying to and bombing Saigon.
However,
sources indicate that severa 1 thousand North Vietnamese pilots have
during the past ten years been sent to the Soviet Union for jet-flight
training. These pilots could be seu returned to North Vietnam
to fly either Soviet or Chinese Communist-made jet aircraft.
Some South Vietnamese intelligence sources also indicate these
trained pilots may have been taught to operate missiles.
(More)
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deepe
fate--6
"Hanoi is balancing between Russia and China," one reliable
source indicated.
"Hanoi is expecting thix the Soviets to give them
this crucial defense equipment-obviously the Russians must give
Hanoi more than ideology.
"At this point, China won't come into the conflict," the source
continued.
"Hanoinikmaskm "The point im which Hanoi would break
and ask the Chinese to come im is whem Hanoi has nothing else to lose--
if their industry and their civilians are bombed. Then Ho Chi Minh
would be willing to sacrifice the ruination of his country--and the
independence of the North Vietnamese leaders. But as long as the
American bombing is fax against military targets, it's not so
Suspicion
important. The North Vietnamese traditionally have a hatred of the
Chinese
Chinese--even of the same politica 1 color."
Other reliable sources indicate that Hanoi has le need
for grounds
defenses against American airpower, but has little
need for ground forces at this point.
The w
200,000 Chinese Communists troops are
Other sources deny this.
Some sources indicate that
based im the northern provinces
There is,
of North Viet Nam,, bordering China.
however, agreement that these Chinese troops have not moved southward
towa rds Hanoi region..
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deepe
fate-7
"The Hanoi regime does not need Chinese troops withim North Vietnam--
one reliable source indicated. "And xxx the North Vietnamese
armed forces is 250,000 men--which is the same size as the regular
South Vietnamese army. Sukx These North Vietnamese have beem
#semi-invading South Vietnam for the past yea r--so they cam continue
to use their own a rmy rather than the Chinese for this in the future."
-30-
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Date
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1965, Apr. 5
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Subject
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Vietnam War, 1961-1975; Vietnam (Democratic Republic)--Relations--Soviet Union; Vietnam (Democratic Republic)--Relations--China; Hồ, Chà Minh, 1890-1969; Balance of power; Arms transfers; Strategy
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Location
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Saigon, South Vietnam
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Coordinates
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10.8231; 106.6311
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Size
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20 x 26 cm
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Container
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B187, F4
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Format
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dispatches
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Collection Number
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MS 363
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Collection Title
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Beverly Deepe Keever, Journalism Papers
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Creator
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Keever, Beverly Deepe
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Collector
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Keever, Beverly Deepe
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Copyright Information
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These images are for educational use only. To inquire about usage or publication, please contact Archives & Special Collections.
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Publisher
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Archives & Special Collections, University of Nebraska-Lincoln Libraries
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Language
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English
